On the whole, I tend to look at the representations of climate-change skeptics with a skeptical eye, as regular visitors to this site will have noted. For me, the skepticism smacks too much of a corporate public-relations campaign, going back two or three decades. On the other hand, it was no less of a thinker than John Stuart Mill who reminded us of the benefits of freewheeling debate, involving even the views of those we might regard as absolutely repugnant. In that spirit, a lengthy feature posted last week on the English-language website of German newsmagazine Der Spiegel merits close attention. Highlights:
– The reputation of the Nobel-prizewinning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been compromised. “In mid-March, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon slammed on the brakes and appointed a watchdog for the IPCC…. There is already a consensus today that deep-seated reforms are needed at the IPCC. The selection of its authors and reviewers was not sufficiently nonpartisan, there was not enough communication among the working groups, and there were no mechanisms on how to handle errors.” In Germany, the prestigious Leibniz Association has called for the resignation of IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri.
– Reconstruction of global temperatures from historical records is extremely complicated. “At a number of weather stations, temperatures rose because houses and factories had been built around them. Elsewhere, stations were moved and, as a result, suddenly produced different readings.” Due to these and other complicating factors, the data had to be “homogenized” by means of statistical methods. Unfortunately, British climatologist Phil Jones, one of the principals in the “Climategate” affair, admitted under pressure from climate-change skeptics that he “had deleted his notes on how he performed the homogenization. This means that it is not possible to reconstruct how the raw data turned into his temperature curve.” Pressure is building to “start from scratch” on the calculation of the global temperature curve — a process that could take years.
– The latest estimates indicate that, even in the face of ongoing warming, an increase in the incidence of “monster storms” such as Hurricane Katrina is not to be expected. “According to the models, the high latitudes will heat up more substantially than the equatorial zones (which also explains why climate change is already so visible in the Arctic regions). On balance, temperature differences on the Earth’s surface will decrease, which in turn will even reduce wind speeds — meaning the much-feared monster storms are unlikely to materialize.”
– Climate change may produce winners as well as losers. Canada, Russia, and Germany may benefit from a more temperate climate. On the other hand, subtropical regions, including the southern United States, Australia, South Africa, and such Mediterranean countries as Spain, Italy and Greece may suffer from more frequent drought conditions.
The feature concludes with the thoughts of German climatologist Hans von Storch: “Climate change isn’t going to happen overnight. We still have enough time to react.” That’s not inconsistent with the position staked out elsewhere on this site….